Sodom me?

Is this the beginning of another crackdown?

The first under Abdullah?

Police report has been filed against Anwar by his aide, a tall and good-looking man (as claimed by a Singaporean Journalist) claiming Anwar has backdoor-ed him.  However, according to a reliable source, the handsome fella was pick up by police, hours before he filed the report against Anwar.

Anwar’s supporters believed that the police will pick up the charismatic opposition adviser anytime now. As so, they have flooded Anwar’s residence to safeguard the man.

If they arrest him, this will definitely trigger another uprising. This will give Abdullah all the reason to begin a crackdown against his critics, bloggers included.

And perhaps, declare the state of emergency.

Update 1.00 am – “Beribu sedang berkumpul di Quality Hotel Shah Alam menghalang pihak yang cuba menangkap DSAI atas tuduhan serupa dengan episod 1998″ Radio Belukar KB.

Update 1.10am. “An aide of a senior opposition has alleged in a police report that the politician sodomised him, he has been warded in hospital”./ Star News Alert.

Update 9.08am. “No arrest has been made yet. Anwar will hold a Press Conference today in Shah Alam. According to my source closely link to Anwar, the fella in the centre of this latest indescribable accusation against the former DPM, has only been working with Anwar for the last 3 months.

Anwar was quoted as saying, the 23 years old Saiful Bahari has been missing for two days. Anwar then was informed that Saiful was picked up by police yesterday and hours later filed a police report against Anwar.

Is Saiful being planted all along?”

Shahrir to fire thousands of Petrol Kiosk Workers

Thousands of Malaysians from Changlung, Kodiang, Kusial, Kampung Raja, Pontianak, Menggatal to Bilut will lose their income come August first, thanks to Shahrir Abdul Samad.

Shahrir had yesterday announced the implementation of Self-Service System for all Petrol Kiosk through out the country effective in the first day of August. While the government will be busy spending millions of ringgit celebrating the nation independent day, these Malaysians will be crying thinking about how they have lost their self dependency.

While many of the pump stations in the big cities are man by foreign workers, those in the small town are man only by locals. And for some, working at the pump station for merely less than RM500 a month is the only source of income for their family.

This cruel turn of event is the result of the increased of fuel prices by the Government led by Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Yesterday, I received a link to a blog, which publishes a document trying to debate my posting regarding my findings on the absurd decision by Abdullah. I printed the document but only after reading the first page I find myself truly regretting it for it is nothing but wasting of ink and paper.

In the document, the government promised,

• A right formula will be used so the people will not suffer from the decision to reduce the fuel subsidy.
• The economy will not be effected by the decision.

Now, I wonder will the government justify this latest action as,

• A right formula?
• Nobody is suffering?
• The economy is good?

Malaysians are starting to lose job. Soon they will also lose their dignity and self-esteem. This is all only for the reason that we as a Malaysian and those in UMNO had fail to make Abdullah and all the deadwoods in the cabinet lose their job.

Those who have played the role in keeping Abdullah in power should be brought to justice and prosecuted for treason at the highest level against those Malaysians who were forced to face this economic calamity due to the incompetence in economic management by Abdullah Administration.

And for Abdullah and his Administration, I leave it to my readers to decide the charges that should be brought against them.

So UMNO Ma!

22 PKR Division Heads or Representatives gathered from noon until 7pm to voice dissatisfaction to Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim but failed to do so. The reason is only one and they want to voice their dissatisfaction of as some members do not made the selection for local councillors by Tan Sri Khalid, the Selangor MB.

 

 

“These people braved water cannons and beatings and have been loyal to PKR for all the years…” claimed a fella named Dr. Badrul Amin Bahron, PKR Sabak Bernam.

What is this? So you are threatening and want to be rewarded for your loyalty. I think you all are in the wrong party mate! Don’t you think Anwar has no better think to do right now like busy with his calculator trying to figure out how to safe the nation from the increasing fuel prices or busy counting the numbers of MPs that plan to cross over.

 

Whatever Anwar is doing I just believe that what his aides should do is to send this people to meet Abdullah just like Ezam did.

Market Full Of Oil: The USD VS Crude Oil Experience

By Hashem Kalentari

ISFAHAN, Iran (Reuters) – The oil market is plentifully supplied and the rally to record high prices is “fake and imposed”, Iran’s president said on Tuesday, blaming a weak U.S. dollar which he suggested was being pushed lower on purpose.

“At a time when the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production and the market is full of oil, prices are rising and this trend is completely fake and imposed,” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said.

 

“It is very clear that visible and invisible hands are controlling prices in a fake way with political and economic aims,” he said when opening a meeting of the OPEC Fund for International Development in the central city of Isfahan.

With high fuel prices sparking protests worldwide, Ahmadinejad hit out at energy taxes in consumer nations. He said there was an “unfair” difference in income between energy exporting and importing countries.

Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter, has repeatedly said the market is well-supplied with crude and blames rising prices on speculation, a weak dollar and geopolitical factors.

Oil steadied on Tuesday after touching a record near $140 the previous day, with traders caught between a weaker dollar and expectations that top exporter Saudi Arabia will ramp up output to its highest rate in decades.

Iran has often said it sees no need for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost output, as the United States and other big oil consumers want.

“As you know the decrease in the dollar’s value and the increase in energy prices are two sides of the same coin which are being introduced as factors behind the recent instability,” Ahmadinejad said.

“EVER-INCREASING DECREASE”

The president reiterated his view that oil should be sold in a basket of currencies rather than dollars, an idea which has failed to win over other OPEC members, except Venezuela.

“The ever-increasing decrease in the dollar’s value is one of the world’s major problems,” he said.

“A combination of the world’s valid currencies should become a basis for oil transactions or (OPEC) member countries should determine a new currency for oil transactions,” he said.

He expressed support for a proposal by Venezuela’s anti-U.S. President Hugo Chavez to create a bank constituted by OPEC members to act as a counterweight to U.S. influence in the world. He also advocated the establishment of an oil bourse.

Iran, embroiled in a standoff with the West over its nuclear programme, has for more than two years been increasing its sales of oil for currencies other than the dollar, saying the weak U.S. unit is eroding its purchasing power.

Ahmadinejad, who has called the dollar a “worthless piece of paper”, suggested a part of its decline was deliberate, without naming any country:

“The planners for some big powers are acting to decrease the dollar’s value,” he said. “For years they imposed inflation and their own economic problems on other nations by injecting the dollar without any support to the global economy.”

Foes since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, Tehran and Washington are also at odds over Tehran’s disputed nuclear activities. Iran says its atomic work is peaceful.

(Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian in Tehran; Writing by Fredrik Dahl; Editing by William Hardy)

 

Shahrir Confirmed Kickdefella’s Finding

Update:

129 Ahli Parlimen BN menghalalkan tindakan menderitakan rakyat kesan dari kenaikan harga bahan bakar.

78 Ahli Parlimen Pembangkang menentang.

Ahli-Ahli Parlimen PAS berpandangan Petronas bersalah, harus disalahkan dan harus dihukum kerana kenaikan harga runcit bahan bakar tempatan.

Ahli Parlimen PAS Shah Alam menuduh rakyat yang memberi subsidi kepada Petronas. dengan erti kata lain, gaji perkerja petronas pun rakyat yang bayar.

Tak tahu apa lagi nak kata.

It is true; fuel subsidy was never in the government budget. It is not just that, even the food subsidy was also never in the budget. As a result, it is an expenditure ‘unaccounted for’ or, an expenditure that never being paid by the government. As a result, fuel and (today we knew that) food subsidy too are not something that government had to pay for from either taxpayer money or from any other government income

In page 8 in today ( Monday, June 23, 2008 ) New Straits Times, Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister, Shahrir Abdul Samad was reported as saying, “…last year the subsidy bill, excluding food and fuel was RM9.2 B”.

With that Shahrir confirmed Kickdefella’s finding that fuel subsidy (and food too) is not in the treasury reports and also not included in the budget.

Shahrir however contradict himself when he points out that, “Add food and fuel and it (the subsidy spent) came to over RM30 B”.

There seems Shahrir himself is getting dumber and dumber each day.

• How can government spent RM30B extra without reporting it to Parliament.
• How can government used extra RM30B and it goes unrecorded in the Treasury records.
• Why did the government did not reveal the real amount she spend or planning to spend it in the budget when they presented it to the Parliament each year.
• The Second Finance Minister, Nor Yakcob claimed the government spent RM35B alone for fuel subsidy but Shahrir claimed RM30B and that already included food subsidy too.
• What is the actual amount the government spent on subsidy?
• Is there other subsidy too that the government spent such as “Subsidy for Abdullah’s daily usage of diapers” or “Rosmah’s C4 allocation” which goes unrecorded?
• Do the government actually spend money for subsidy?

My fellow Malaysian, does the government actually spend money on subsidy?

My findings show that the amount of subsidy which government claimed totalling from RM30B to RM50B depending on whose big mouth you want to believe is not recorded anywhere. If the government actually spend those amounts, it should be listed in their reports.

Whose money does the government actually spend?

My findings lead us to only one outcome in regards of the fuel subsidy. The ‘subsidy’ actually came from the exchange of crude oil by Petronas. And as nobody shoots me down on this, I tend to say that I am almost correct about it. Maybe 99% correct and if I was wrong, it is only on the details of the exchange.

This will mean,

• Whenever the crude oil price increase, our crude oil price too increase.
• Let put it this way, X is the market price for crude oil that we import.
• Y is the market price for crude oil that we export. The reason our price is Y because ours are Sweet and Light and it is called the ‘Tapis Blend’ which is the most expensive grade in the market.

When the price in the market increase, it will mean that,

• X prices increase.
• Y prices increase.

So why do we spend more money to meet local demand when the market price increase?

The answer is we do not. Yes, we do not spend extra money to get the crude oil we need for local market.

(Petronas has done a wonderful job. It is undeniably that we owe this to those hardworking yet underpaid Petronas staff.) 

As a result I do not understand why certain politician from the opposition are blaming Petronas and wants to demonstrate in front of the Twin Tower. They should indeed demonstrate (if they know nothing better to do) in front of the Treasury or in front of Abdullah’s Seri Perdana.

But if I am them, I would just get my facts right and pursue the matter in more civilise manner.

• Try to take some sort of court order to try to stop the government from doing what they are doing. Don’t ask me on what ground they should do it. They are the one who is getting paid for being the ‘Wakil Rakyat’.
• Our judiciary system is much more independent now, right?
• We just paid those ‘rebel’ judges undisclosed amount as ex gratia payment so all the judges should not be worried, because if they go against the government, one day, they will get extra earnings for it.
• File police report if you trust the police.
• File report with the human rights commission because Malaysian has lost certain expect of their rights by the increase in fuel prices.

Last but not least, organise a road show all over the country and explain the truth to the people. They are best at ‘ceramah’ right?

And after that road show, lets gathered 1 million or more Malaysian to peacefully walk to Seri Perdana and all the Minister’s house and demand they reduce back the price of fuel.

I shall be there. I know my readers will be there too.

Hassan, Husam and The Truth About Fuel Subsidy

Last night, Hassan Marican appeared on National Television willingly to bare all about Petronas. Unfortunately, the only answer he should have gave last night to those stupid panels (and moderator) was “Bloddy hell, what a stupid question! Go and **PAKLAH** yourself la!” but he remained calm though.

Most probably the instruction was to grill him as though the increase of fuel prices is all Petronas faults.

Meanwhile, Last week, before leaving for Dubai, Dato’ Husam Musa called for a Press Conference to reveal all the facts and to justify his claim that it is not necessary for the government to increase fuel prices. It is also to give his insights on how actually it is possible to reduce the fuel prices.

Unfortunately, none of it ever came out in the mainstream papers although we have about 30 journalist and broadcaster packing the small office. The TVPAS reporter came ten minutes later and arrogantly left the room because the session already started. As a result, the session goes unrecorded. It was a total blackout on what was said and PAS official organ too play a role in it.

I have written in this blog all the facts and have published the figures to justify the claim where many are more interested to use rhetoric and to show the slimy strength by demonstrating and cause misery to the already much affected taxi drivers and shoppers in KL.

To some politicians, it is easier to get your photos and story published in newspaper by behaving like hooligans in public places yet when you got the chance to speak up, only buckets of nonsense do come out.

Today I will continue with my essay and we will discuss how it is possible to reduce the price of fuel prices and to put a stop in the already escalating cost of living.

Kerajaan Tidak Berlaku Jujur Di dalam Soal Subsidi Bahan Bakar

Kerajaan mendakwa terpaksa membelanjakan hampir RM40 Billion untuk menampung subsidi bahan bakar. Ini adalah sebenarnya satu dusta ataupun, satu cubaan oleh kerajaan untuk mengelirukan rakyat Malaysia.

Hakikatnya adalah,

• Kerajaan tidak menanggung satu senpun untuk subsidi bahan bakar.
• Subsidi bahan bakar juga tidak termasuk dalam data perbelanjaan kerajaan.
• Subsidi bahan bakar sebenarnya tiada.
• Yang ada hanyalah wang yang dibelanjakan oleh kerajaan untuk subsidi tol, subsidi pengangkutan awam, subsidi bahan makanan dan lain-lain subsidi tetapi bukan untuk bahan bakar.

Oleh yang demikian, kenyataan berikut oleh Menteri Kewangan Ke Dua adalah tidak tepat dan bersifat cuba mengelirukan rakyat.

Data yang dikeluarkan oleh Perbendaharaan Negara jelas tidak seperti yang dinyatakan oleh Menteri Kewangan Ke Dua, Menteri-Menteri Kabinet, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi dan juga oleh Khairy Jamaluddin di Persidangan Agung UMNO 2007.

Data Perbendaharaan Negara menunjukkan maklumat berikut,

Menurut Laporan Perbendaharaan Negara dalam carta 4.3 Perbelanjaan Mengurus Kerajaan Persekutuan 2008, jumlah subsidi yang ditanggung Kerajaan pada tahun 2007 ialah RM12.1 billion iaitu 9.8% daripada RM124 Billion Perbelanjaan Mengurus Kerajaan. Manakala pada tahun 2008, jumlah subsidi yang diramal oleh kerajaan ialah RM10.1 Billion atau 7.9% daripada jumlah RM129 Billion peruntukan Perbelanjaan Mengurus Kerajaan yang diluluskan dalam belanjawan 2008.

Ini jelas menunjukkan bahawa perbelanjaan mengurus subsidi bahan bakar tidak pernah termasuk didalam perbelanjaan kerajaan kerana,

• Data perbelanjaan mengurus oleh Perbendaharaan menunjukkan jumlah yang lebih kecil dan tentu sekali tidak dapat menampung jumlah subsidi yang kononnya berjumlah RM40 Billion.
• Jumlah subsidi bahan bakar juga tidak termasuk di dalam data-data lain di dalam akaun kerajaan seperti yang tercatat di dalam laporan tahunan Perbendaharaan Negara.

Oleh yang demikian, dari manakah datangnya subsidi tersebut? Subsidi tersebut sebenarnya tidak pernah wujud.

Bahan bakar yang diguna untuk keperluan domestik diperolehi menerusi,

• Mekanisme tukaran minyak mentah negara.
• 400 tong minyak mentah berkualiti “Tapis Blend” iaitu minyak mentah berkualiti paling tinggi di tukar di pasaran global dengan keperluan minyak mentah dalam negara.
• Minyak mentah ini setelah diproses kepada petrol dan diesel di jual kepada rakyat pada harga yang ditentukan oleh kerajaan.
• Kerajaan memperolehi “keuntungan” bersih (kerana kerajaan tidak membelanjakan apa-apa) dari cukai yang dibayar oleh Syarikat Petroleum, Stesen-stesen minyak dan lain-lain pembekal.

Benarkah Minyak Mentah Malaysia Hanya Untuk Beberapa Tahun Lagi?

Kebelakangan ini, rakyat diberitahu bahawa sumber petroleum Malaysia akan berakhir dan negara akan menjadi pengimport bersih (net importer) bahan bakar ini. Ini dijadikan alasan oleh kerajaan untuk menaikan harga minyak dan seterusnya menarik “subsidi” bahan bakar bagi menyediakan rakyat dengan harga semasa bila negara mula mengimport minyak untuk kegunaan tempatan.

Bagaimanapun, Laporan Tahunan Petronas 2006 mencatatkan bahawa sumber minyak mentah Malaysia cukup sehingga tahun 2024.

Hassan Marican, Pemangku Pengerusi, Presiden dan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Petronas, pula menjelaskan kepada media bahawa pada tahun 2011 Malaysia akan menjadi net importer Petroleum kerana permintaan dalam negara akan melebihi keluaran minyak mentah negara. Ini bererti permintaan dalam negara akan melebihi 700 ribu tong sehari. Tetapi pada tahun 2011 dan seterusnya, negara akan masih mampu mengeluarkan 700 ribu tong minyak mentah sehari, itu tidak dinafikan oleh beliau.

Berdasarkan Laporan Tahunan Petronas semenjak 1980 melaporkan bahawa simpanan minyak mentah Malaysia semakin bertambah dan bukannya berkurang. Dalam tahun 1980. Dilaporkan bahawa simpanan minyak mentah Malaysia adalah sebanyak 3 billion tong, namun semenjak itu kita telah mengeluarkan lebih 4 billion tong dan hari ini kita hasih mengeluarkan sebanyak 650 ke 700 ribu tong sehari setiap hari selama 365 hari dan pada kadar ini boleh bertahan untuk 20 tahun lagi.

Sebenarnya, simpanan minyak mentah negara semakin bertambah dan bukannya berkurang. Pada tahun 2008, simpanan minyak mentah negara ialah 4 billion tong dan Malaysia berada di tempat ke 28 di dalam pemilik simpanan minyak terbesar dunia.

Minyak mentah Malaysia sebenarnya tidak akan kering dengan begitu cepat. Ini kerana Petronas, sebuah firma petroleum yang dimiliki oleh rakyat Malaysia melabur ratusan juta ringgit setiap tahun bagi mencari telaga minyak baru di seluruh dunia.

Menerusi pelaburan itu terhasilnya penemuan-penemuan baru dan menurut laporan yang sama, nisbah penggantian pada waktu ini ialah 1:1.8 liter.

Ini bererti, bagi setiap satu liter yang digunakan oleh Petronas menemui 1.8 liter sumber baharu. Ini bermakna kadar penggantian adalah lebih besar dari kadar penggunaan.

Penurunan Harga Minyak Tidak Mustahil

Bagi mengoptimunkan perolehan kerajaan menerusi minyak mentah kerajaan sebenarnya tidak perlu menaikan harga minyak. Bahkan kerajaan boleh mengoptimunkan perolehannya dengan menurunkan harga minyak pada waktu yang sama.

Pengurangan Penggunaan Petrol dan Diesel

Harga petrol Malaysia adalah yang tertinggi di kalangan negara-negara pengeluar minyak. Berdasarkan jumlah penduduk 26 juta orang dan kadar pengeluaran minyak mentah sebanyak 650 ke 700 ribu tong sehari, Malaysia mempunyai nisbah pengeluaran yang amat tinggi tetapi ianya tidak dinikmati oleh rakyatnya yang jauh lebih rendah dari negara-negara pengeluar lain.

Harga bahan bakar petrol dan diesel ini perlu diturunkan dan sememangnya mampu diturunkan. Antara proses-proses yang perlu diambil untuk menurunkannya adalah seperti berikut.

Peralihan daripada penggunaan Petrol dan Diesel kepada gas asli untuk kenderaan atau NGV perlu dilakukan kerana faktor-faktor berikut,

• Malaysia adalah negara ke 13 di dunia mempunyai simpanan gas asli terbesar. Pada tahun 2004, Dato’ Mustapha Mohamed mengumumkan simpanan gas asli Malaysia adalah sebanyak 89 trillion kaki padu.
• Walaupun kerajaan menggalakan penggunaan NGV kerana ia lebih bersih dan mesra alam tetapi kerajaan tidak mewajibkan setiap stesen minyak menyediakan kemudahan ini. Akibatnya stesen NGV amat terhad dan tertumpu di sekitar Lembah Klang sahaja.
• Penggunaan NGV secara meluas oleh pemilik kenderaan akan mengakibatkan permintaan terhadap petrol dan diesel berkurangan.
• Kesannya negara boleh menjual lebih minyak mentah dan ini akan membawa lebih banyak pulangan.
• Menerusi pendapatan lebihan ini, harga petrol dan diesel dapat dikurangkan lagi.

National Petroleum Advisory Council

Penubuhan semula National Petroleum Advisory Council (NPAC) bagi mengumpulkan pakar-pakar bagi merancang guna sumber tenaga negara dan mementuk polisi-polisi tenaga Negara yang berkesan. NPAC ditubuhkan bersama dengan penubuhan Petronas tetapi ianya sudah tidak wujud lagi pada hari ini.

Petronas sering mencatat keuntungan besar dari setahun ke setahun. Dan sebagai sebuah syarikat yang menjaga khazanah milik rakyat Malaysia, struktur organisasi Petronas perlu bermatlamat menjaga kepentingan rakyat.

Oleh itu NPAC perlu dihidupkan semula dengan melantik tokoh-tokoh berwibawa dan bukan semata-mata ‘perlantikan politik’. Dengan erti kata lain, menghidupkan semula NPAC tidak bermakna jika sekadar mahu melantik tokoh-tokoh UMNO yang telah ‘expire’ seperti contohnya dengan melantik Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik atau Zainuddin Maidin.

Check And Balance Di Dalam Petronas

Pada hari ini, Tan Sri Dato’ Mohd. Hassan Merican memegang ketiga-tiga jawatan tertinggi Petronas iaitu Sebagai Pengerusi, Presiden dan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Petronas. Sebelum ini dua jawatan ini disandang oleh individu berlainan.

Tanpa mahu mempertikaikan pencapaian dan kejayaan yang dibawa oleh Tan Sri Dato’ Seri Mohd. Hassan Marican sejak diteraju Petronas, namun dengan memegang ketiga-tiga jawatan ini, Tan Sri Dato’ Seri Mohd. Hassan Marican menjadi begitu kuat sehingga menyukarkan check and balance di dalam Petronas seterusnya mengakibatkan tiada ketelusan di dalam pengurusan Petronas.

Kesimpulan

Rakyat Malaysia seharusnya menikmati kemakmuran daripada kenaikan harga minyak dipasaran dunia. Sebagai pengeksport bersih minyak mentah, kenaikan harga minyak beerti pulangan tambahan kepada negara.

Malang sekali, bukan sahaja tidak dapat menikmati kemakmuran daripada sumber hasil negara ini, rakyat Malaysia dibebankan pula oleh kenaikan harga minyak yang seterusnya memberi kesan berantai terhadap harga barang-barang keperluan.

Berdasarkan hujah-hujah dan data-data yang telah diketengahkan, terbukti bahawa tindakan kerajaan untuk menaikan harga minyak adalah tidak berasas.

Ini membuktikan kelemahan di dalam pengurusan oleh kerajaan dibawah pimpinan Perdana Menteri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Rakyat Malaysia seharusnya menuntut hak mengecapi kemakmuran sebagai negara pengeluar minyak dan menyeru kerajaan menurunkan semula harga minyak. Jika ini tidak dilakukan, ekonomi negara akan merudum dan rakyat bukan sahaja akan menderita akibatnya tetapi terpaksa pula berdepan dengan pelbagai masalah sosial yang berpunca darinya.

Pulangkan Hak Rakyat Segera!

Kickdefella Bares All

While waiting for Petronas to bare all next week, Kickdefella reveals all the Government and Petronas data pertaining to the petroleum revenues. These are public data and readers can find it in the net and it is either belong to Bank Negara Malaysia, The Treasury or Petronas itself.

Hassan Merican, the Acting Chairman, President and CEO of Petronas claimed that Malaysia will be net importer of crude oil by 2011. He however was forced to clarify that Malaysia will become net importer because the domestic demand of fuel is more than our supply by 2011 and not that our crude oil has dry up like what being claim by those Pariah in the Government.

Please take note that in Petronas Yearly Report is clearly mention that in 2006 the ‘replacement ratio’ of our crude oil is 1:1.8. Which in layman terms, it means for every litre of petrol we use, Petronas has found 1.8 litres of new source. Which means when the country used 400,000 barrels of crude oil a day, Petronas found 720,000 barrels of crude oil reserve. That is 720,000 x 365 days.

Dear readers, to help us understand how the government can actually reduce the price of petrol and diesel, I have prepared the below essay.

Siapakah Yang Untung Dengan Kenaikan Harga Minyak Global

Jawapannya tentu sekali negara-negara pengeluar minyak, termasuklah Malaysia.

• Malaysia sebagai negara ‘net exporter’ minyak mentah menerima habuan besar daripada kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Data-data yang dikeluarkan oleh Kerajaan menerusi Bank negara Malaysia dan Pembendaharaan Negara serta data-data dari Petronas sendiri menunjukkan semenjak dunia di landa krisis harga minyak mentah yang melambung, Malaysia menikmati pulangan yang semakin tinggi.

• Malaysia mengeluarkan 650 ke 700 ribu tong minyak mentah sehari (Bergantung kepada keluaran semasa).

• Malaysia menggunakan lebih kurang 400 ribu tong minyak mentah sehari.

• Ini bermakna Malaysia mengeksport bersih lebih 250 ribu tong sehari.

• Bagaimanapun minyak mentah keluaran Malaysia diklasifikasikan sebagai “Tapis Blend”, yang didefinisikan oleh Exxonmobil sebagai “Tapis Blend is a high quality, extra light, low sulfur crude. It has high quality clean products and conversion feed.” Iaitu minyak mentah berkualiti tinggi dan disebut oleh Hassan Merican sebagai Sweet and Light.

• Tapis Blend tidak digunakan dipasaran tempatan sebaliknya di eksport untuk pasaran luar negara pada harga yang mencecah 30% lebih tinggi dari harga minyak mentah yang digunakan didalam negara.

Mekanisme Penjualan Minyak Mentah Malaysia

Sebelum 2004, minyak mentah Malaysia di jual pada kadar USD30.00 satu tong. Hari ini harga pasaran bagi minyak mentah global berkisar di paras lebih USD130.00 satu tong. Ini beerti pendapatan negara menerusi segala bentuk cukai juga meningkat.

Telaga minyak di Malaysia dikendalikan oleh Petronas dan beberapa syarikat pengeluar minyak antarabangsa. Syarikat pengeluar ini mendapat keuntungan amat besar pada harga pasaran hari ini.

Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamed, selaku Penasihat Petronas menulis di blognya, “Hampir tiada peningkatan di dalam kos pengeluaran (Oleh Petronas semenjak 3 tahun lalu) oleh itu lebihan USD100.00 satu tong boleh di anggap untung bersih.”

Oleh yang demikian, memandangkan Malaysia memiliki lebihan sekurang-kurangnya 250 ribu tong sehari setelah ditolak penggunaan tempatan maka bagi setiap 1 tong itu pengeluar mendapat untuk bersih tidak kurang USD100.00.

250 tong x USD100 x 365 hari = Untung Bersih

Ini bererti pengeluar mendapat keuntungan berlipat ganda dan mereka terpaksa membayar cukai yang lebih tinggi kepada kerajaan.

Kesannya, kerajaan memperoleh pendapatan yang lebih tinggi menerusi cukai langsung, cukai tidak langsung, dividen dan royalti dari hasil petroleum dan gas, berbanding 3 tahun yang lalu.

Data Perbedaharaan menunjukkan kenaikan pendapatan hasil kerajaan melonjak semenjak Abdullah Ahmad Badawi menerajui negara dan lonjakan ini adalah disebabkan kenaikan hasil yang diperolehi kerajaan menerusi

• Cukai Langsung dari Cukai Pendapatan Syarikat Petroleum yang meningkat dari RM 11.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM 20.7 B dalam tahun 2006.

• Cukai Tak Langsung dari Duti Eksport Petroleum yang meningkat dari RM 11.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM 2.3 B pada tahun 2006.
• Hasil Bukan Cukai – Dividen Petronas daripada RM9.1 B dalam tahun kewangan 2004 yang melonjak 100% kepada RM18.0 B pada tahun berakhir 2006.
• Hasil Bukan Cukai – Royalti Petroleum dan Gas yang meningkat dari RM2.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM4.2 B pada tahun 2006.

Benarkah Subsidi Petroleum Membebankan Negara

Kerajaan mendakwa bahawa kenaikan harga minyak mentah di pasaran dunia mengakibatkan kerajaan terpaksa menanggung beban subsidi petrol dan diesel yang tinggi.

Sebaliknya, data-data dari sumber rasmi kerajaan membuktikan sebaliknya. Data yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Negara Malaysia menunjukkan pada tahun 2004, Kerajaan membelanjakan sebanyak RM5.8 B untuk segala subsidi iaitu termasuk subsidi bahan bakar (Petrol, Diesel dan lain-lain), subsidi bahan makanan dan lain-lain.

Pada tahun 2005, perbelanjaan kerajaan bagi tujuan subsidi bagaimanapun meningkat hampir 3 kali ganda kepada RM13.4 B tetapi perbelanjaan untuk subsidi bagaimanapun menurun semula pada tahun 2006 kepada hanya RM10.1 B.

Walaupun kenaikan pendapatan hasil kerajaan dari sumber Petroleum meningkat dengan mendadak yang membuktikan hasil kerajaan turut meningkat setiap kali harga minyak mentah dunia meningkat, tetapi subsidi yang dikeluarkan oleh kerajaan tidak meningkat pada peratusan yang sama.

Ini membuktikan bahawa kerajaan masih mengalami perolehan lebihan jika ia mengekalkan harga Petrol dan Diesel pada harga yang lama.

Pada tahun 2004, kerajaan membelanjakan sebanyak 6.3% dari Perbelanjaan Mengurus Kerajaan Persekutuan untuk subsidi (termasuk segala bentuk subsidi) dan mencatat peningkatan kepada 13.7% pada tahun 2005 tetapi menurun semula kepada 9.4% pada tahun 2006. Subsidi yang dibelanjakan oleh kerajaan hanya mencatat peningkatan pada 0.4% dalam tahun 2007 walaupun kerajaan tidak menaikan harga bahan bakar sepanjang tahun itu.

Oleh yang demikian sebenarnya jelas bahawa subsidi bahan bakar petrol dan diesel sebenarnya tidak membebankan negara.

Mengapa Subsidi Petrol dan Diesel tidak membebankan Negara

Seperti yang dijelaskan, Malaysia mengeluarkan 650 ke 700 tibu tong minyak mentah sehari. Kegunaan dalam negara pula hanyalah 400 ribu tong sehari. Negara mengalami lebihan 250 ke 300 ribu tong sehari untuk dieksport ke luar negara.

Memandangkan kegunaan minyak mentah dalam negara tidak memerlukan minyak mentah berkualiti tinggi, maka 400 ribu tong minyak mentah yang dikhaskan untuk kegunaan dalam negara di tukar di pasaran dengan 400 ribu tong minyak minyak berkualiti rendah. Pertukaran ini juga menguntungkan negara kerana minyak mentah negara dari kelas Tapis Blend yang harga lebih tinggi dari minyak mentah yang diperlukan oleh negara. Ini bermakna negara samada mendapat lebih minyak atau mendapat pulangan kewangan bersama minyak yang ditukar itu.

 

Ini bererti, sebarang kenaikan harga minyak mentah dalam pasaran global langsung tidak menjejaskan negara.

Oleh yang demikian tiada sebab mengapa kerajaan perlu menaikan harga petrol dan diesel dengan memberi alasan mengurangkan subsidi terhadap bahan bakar tersebut!

Data Bukti Kerajaan Selesa Dengan Kenaikan Harga Minyak Mentah

Data daripada Bank Negara Malaysia dan Pembendaharaan Negara membuktikan bahawa Kerajaan sebenarnya selesa dan mewah akibat kesan kenaikan harga minyak mentah di pasaran dunia.

Data Pembedaharaan menunjukkan kenaikan pendapatan hasil kerajaan melonjak semenjak Abdullah Ahmad Badawi menerajui negara dan lonjakan ini adalah disebabkan kenaikan hasil yang diperolehi kerajaan menerusi

• Cukai Langsung dari Cukai Pendapatan Syarikat Petroleum yang meningkat dari RM 11.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM 20.7 B dalam tahun 2006.
• Cukai Tak Langsung dari Duti Eksport Petroleum yang meningkat dari RM 1.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM 2.3 B pada tahun 2006.
• Hasil Bukan Cukai – Dividen Petronas daripada RM9.1 B dalam tahun kewangan 2004 yang melonjak 100% kepada RM18.0 B pada tahun berakhir 2006.
• Hasil Bukan Cukai – Royalti Petroleum dan Gas yang meningkat dari RM2.5 B pada tahun 2004 kepada RM4.2 B pada tahun 2006.
(Data di atas diperolehi dari sumber Pembedaharaan Negara dan boleh di lihat umum di http://www.treasury.gov.my/view.php?ch=24&pg=183&ac=1443&fname=attachment&dbIndex=0).

Kenaikan pendapatan kerajaan ini adalah berkait rapat dengan keuntungan besar yang diperolehi oleh syarikat Petroleum terutamanya Petronas yang mengaut keuntungan terus daripada kenaikan harga pasaran minyak mentah dunia.

Bagaimanapun, Data daripada Bank Negara Malaysia menunjukkan perbelanjaan kerajaan untuk subsidi tidak melonjak dengan ketara akibat daripada kenaikan kenaikan harga minyak di pasaran dunia. Data Bank Negara menafikan hakikat yang cuba diutarakan oleh kerajaan bagi menaikan harga bahan bakar untuk kenderaan di Malaysia.

(Data Bank Negara boleh di lihat di http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/msb/2007/11/pdf/6.3.pdf)

(Walaupun data berakhir pada tahun 2006, tetapi kita boleh bayangkan trend di antara kenaikan harga minyak dan peningkatan perolehan kerajaan apabila pasaran minyak mentah dunia terus melonjak pada tahun 2007 dan 2008.)

Data yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Negara Malaysia menunjukkan pada tahun 2004, Kerajaan membelanjakan sebanyak RM5.8 B untuk segala subsidi iaitu termasuk subsidi bahan bakar, subsidi bahan makanan dan lain-lain.

Pada tahun 2005, perbelanjaan kerajaan bagi tujuan subsidi bagaimanapun meningkat hampir 3 kali ganda kepada RM13.4 B tetapi perbelanjaan untuk subsidi bagaimanapun menurun semula pada tahun 2006 kepada hanya RM10.1 B sedangkan mulai 2006 desas-desus dalam kerajaan untuk menamatkan pemberian subsidi bahan bakar mula timbul.

Walaupun kenaikan pendapatan hasil kerajaan dari sumber Petroleum meningkat dengan mendadak yang membuktikan hasil kerajaan turut meningkat setiap kali harga minyak mentah dunia meningkat, tetapi subsidi yang dikeluarkan oleh kerajaan tidak meningkat pada peratusan yang sama.

Kerajaan membiarkan rakyat menanggung beban kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia sebaliknya kerajaan menikmati perolehan yang amat positif dari kenaikan itu.

Sebalikanya data-data dari kerajaan jelas menunjukkan kerajaan sebenarnya mampu dengan selesa menurunkan harga bahan bakar petrol dan diesel dengan meningkatkan subsidi setanding dengan peratusan kanaikan perolehan kerajaan.

Sebaliknya, kerajaan bertindak menaikan harga minyak. Rakyat dijanjikan dengan menanggung sendiri beban kenaikan harga minyak, kerajaan akan mempertingkatkan taraf hidup dan kualiti hidup penduduk menerusi pembiayaan projek-projek yang mampu meringankan beban rakyat. Malangnya, walaupun terpaksa menanggung beban kenaikan harga minyak, rakyat tidak pula dapat menikmati janji-janji kerajaan itu. Projek-projek kerajaan yang diumumkan sering dibatalkan dan pembayar cukai dipaksa pula membayar ganti rugi akibat pembatalan kontrak-kontrak oleh kerajaan.

Apa yang jelas lagi bersuluh, beban rakyat bukanlah disebabkan kenaikan harga minyak tetapi disebabkan kebebalan dan sikap tidak bijak Kerajaan yang diterajui oleh Abdullah Haji Ahmad Badawi.

Sheih on Sheih: Pariah Leadership and Death of an Economy

I wrote about those difficult times that clouded my life because I anticipated that Malaysia is heading into another economic downturn. I was wrong; Malaysia is actually heading towards economic catastrophe.

We have suffered recession period in the eighties and faced an economic downturn in late nineties. It took us sometime to recover in the eighties but the leadership took a sharp decision to stabilise the economic in the late nineties with some bold decisions which managed to help us back on our feet sooner that many others although the road we have taken led towards tonnes of criticism.

Anwar Ibrahim forced us to swallow the IMF medicine during the early stage of the downturn in 1997, before Mahathir took a blunt decision which resulted amongst others, the sacking of Anwar and followed by bold decision which saw Ringgit pegged against the Dollar and the enforcement of capital control, among others.

Behind the curtain of political uncertainties during that period, our economy managed to stop heading south and soon, we are back on our feet, faster than the rest and this too help to cure the political problems.

In the late nineties, the clashed is more because of ideologies and political survival. However, today, our economic problems are more of external factors and only one domestic factor. The single domestic factor is that, we have a pariah as a leader.

That pariah is none other than the shameless Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

In many more posting to come, I will prove to you that this fella is a liar. He lied about the state of our petroleum income and he lied about not having the choice but to reduce the fuel subsidy. Or he actually is an honest pariah who knows nuts about running the country.

But today, I will focus on what only a pariah can do, and that is turning our economy into a recluse economy.

For many times now, we heard that we should change our lifestyle and to spend less. I totally disagreed, as I strongly believe that when we spend less, meaning we are not doing our part to generate the economy.

What we should do is to spend as usual or even more but spend it wisely. But pariah will do what pariah born to do. When we are forced to curb our spending Abdullah is spending lavishly. He travelled in a bullet proof BMW 7 series and a brand new executive jet, among others. He is never spending wisely neither did he curbing his spending of taxpayer’s money.

Recently, we are faced with an increase of fuel prices at a scale we never imagine before. Even an idiot will know, the increase of fuel prices will escalates into rapid increase of all other things. In a transportable world, where goods are moved from one point to another, will mean an increase of fuel prices will cause the increase in transporting cost. An increase in transporting cost will only mean an increase in our expenditure. An increase in our expenditure will mean, even things that are not moveable will also suffered in increase of cost because everything is interrelated.

When everything or part of the things we need daily has increased, meaning we have to spend more on those things which resulted in us having less to spend. Automatically, the community will have to spend less and this will force the economy to slow down. Inflation rates increase while we are heading towards recession.

As a result of realising the truth that has happen, a Pariah leader push the panic button. They announced cost cutting measure across the board, which in actual fact will do more damage than good.

In an economy that relies heavily on the government, cutting the government expenditures will cost more damage toward the economy. When the government started to spend less, the industry that rely heavily on the government will doom.

The increase of fuel prices will curb the mobility of the community. Domestic tourism will feel the effects. The hotel will start to stare at those empty rooms. When the government reduce the usage of the hotels too, this will only mean bad. This is one obvious example.

In a matter of fact, what the government should do to help the economy to stabilise itself is to force people and even the government to spend wisely yet to spend more. But how to spend more when you have pretty much less in the pocket?

Instead of announcing all the negative measures by the government, what they should do is to provide more incentives for everybody. Such as reducing income tax and company taxes, bonuses and income from voluntary separation scheme should be tax-free. The government will have less but people who are benefited from such incentives will have more and will spend more and this is one of the things that will trigger the rebound in the economy.

The government should also immediately force the people to use less fuel and change into Natural Gas for Vehicles or NGV. The government should enforce all petrol stations to equip with NGV pump. Incentives should be given to NGV user and penalty for those petrol and diesel user.

Malaysia have the biggest natural gas reserved and why aren’t the government serious about it.

In a matter of fact, the increase in fuel prices is unnecessary for Malaysia, if the government actually serious about the usage of NGV.

The government has been talking about NGV for more than a decade but there are only less than 50 NGV pump in Klang Valley and for majority of other states in Malaysia, there are not even a single NGV pump.

With the increase of NGV usage will result in less usage of petrol and this will mean we can sell more of our petrol to other country and increase our income.

We are facing what we are facing now because we have a Pariah Prime Minister and bunch of jokers as the minister. And for this, sorry to say but UMNO is solely responsible for the horrible life we are facing.

I am not an economist and the manner I looked at the economy may be too simplistic. Yet, what about those who we paid fortunes from taxpayer’s money, why can they do the simplest thing we expect from them? And the simplest thing to do now is to step down before we walk into your office and drag you out of there.

Sheih on Sheih : Of Myanmar and Abdullah

The Children of Yangon

About 40 years ago, Lew Kuan Yew’s word spread by radio around the world and this is roughly what he said, “I will develop Singapore like Rangoon”. My guide in Yangon, Mr. Auw (real name withheld for security reason) shared with me what his father told him about once the most beautiful city in Asia.

Mr. Auw also share with me the statement made by his 12 year-old kid recently, “General Aung San must be making a grave decision for fighting the independent from British for Myanmar”.

When he quizzed the child for making such statement, the child said this, “We are far better off under British, look at all those old colonial building and roads, the infrastructure, look at what we achieve today, we achieved nothing and life is so bad under our own ruler”.

Mr. Auw was left speechless yet he has to agree with his kid. “Our developments were far more systematic during the colonial time, but now, everything is in total disarray”.

The Street of Yangon

I arrived in Yangon on the 2nd June 2008. I am not here to condemn this nation which I hardly has any interest, I was here as part of the Kijang Care Humanitarian Mission for the Nargis Cyclone. Nevertheless, Yangon is true to what being said and it is sad to see such a once glorious city becoming the victim of power greedy military dictator.

It took four attempts from us before we managed to get our visa. But once we arrived at the modern but small airport, we find it is much easier to manoeuvre and there are almost none military present in the city. At least none to be seen until we make our attempt to pass in front of the house where Aung San Su Kyi is being held.

The most familiar views are thousands upon thousands of people in sarong. The taxi drivers, the trishaw men, the hawkers, the school children, the businessmen and almost everybody wearing sarong.

I talk to Dr. Min (Real name being held for security reason), a Myanmar trained Doctor who currently serving for a Dutch NGO in Myanmar about the statement made by Mr. Auw’s kid and Dr. Min agreed that Myanmar is better off under the colonial rule.

Minimum wages for government servant in Myanmar is USD30 per month and normal wages for a doctor in Myanmar is USD90 per month. One of the International Company that stood tall in Myanmar is Malaysian own Petronas. Petronas is drilling natural gas in Myanmar waters.

The Orphans of Talaa

Petronas also supply fuel for Myanmar in which I was told that the Myanmar government without fail owe Petronas about USD100 million each year.
Nevertheless, Myanmar has a very low crime rate. Despite very rare authority present around Yangon, it is actually a very safe city. The sense of security can be seen where the shops selling precious stone and gold are not guarded by any security at all.

It is also normal to see people carrying a lot of cash in a plastic bag as you have to pay for everything in cash, even if you want to buy a car. Mind you, car is so damn expensive, a 1970’s model of Datsun can still cost buyer USD10,000.

A senior member of Malaysian Embassy in Myanmar gave me two reason why the crime rate is never a problem in the city, one is because no motorcycle allowed in the city and second is because once you are caught, you will have to stay over a year in the prison before they ever bother the open an investigation paper. Bear in mind the rotten state of the prison.

I always read about how beautiful Yangon is, nevertheless, the only beauty I found was in the people of Myanmar. Yangon is a dilapidated city. It is a has been city and what is left are only ruins not due to the cyclone but bad governance.

In Search of Support from Foreign Humanitarian Groups

Only after ten minutes drive from the town centre, the roadside are filled with bamboo huts where those people who had suffered from decades of ruthless regime governing them found their shelter.

Tourist almost non-existent and there are no foreigner taking photos of those pagodas. I tried to email my stories back to Malaysia only to find that all gateway to Yahoo and GMail are block by the government. Internet access is limited and very slow making it almost impossible to update my weblog from there. Do not even dream of roaming international mobile services.

A sim card for mobile cost USD2,000 while Internet access installation cost USD1,500. Communication via the modern technology is almost impossible unless you are a rich man. Middles class do not exist in the society. People of Myanmar are either rich or poor.

It was on my second day in Yangon when we got the news of the fuel hike in Malaysia. Nevertheless, it was the very moment I step my foot in the city when I told those around me that Yangon is what we can anticipate if we keep Abdullah in power for the next decade.

Perhaps, the fuel hike is Abdullah’s way of Myamarising Malaysia. Myanmarisation of Malaysia will begin with the fuel hike and this will cause the uprising of Malaysians who will find it unbearable. Abdullah anticipate Malaysian to take to the streets in protest. This will provide him with the window of opportunity to abuse the military and force for some sort of intervention that will result in suspending the constitution. Abdullah than can happily sleep in power without ever bother to think of facing elimination from UMNO party contest and also Malaysia General Election.

As I walked pass the security at Yangon International Airport, my heart is with those friendly people of Myanmar. My prayer will always be with my Brother Auw, the rich businessman who willing to spend whatever he has to fight for democratic government in Myanmar, the two kids from the street of once the proud Scott Market whom willing to accept me as a friend and to the spirits of those unburied bodies by the Irrawady Delta.

After all that I have seen, I told myself, I shall go back and bring my kids and wife to somewhere expensive while we can still afford it and that place shall be one of those Petrol Station in Malaysia.

Blogger Kickdefella with The Victims of Nargis in Chunyangoon

See new photo collection titled “Myanmar” at Kickdefella Photo Journal

Ezam Kembali Bersama Katak-Kataknya?

Ezam Mohd Noor berdiri di pentas di Kampung Kedai Piah tidak sampai 100 hari yang lalu dan menjerit-jerit dihadapan lebih kurang 300 orang mengupas hujah-hujahnya tentang bertapa buruknya UMNO dan betapa busuknya Barisan Nasional. Intipati pekikan Ezam berakhir dengan kesimpulan bahawa Kerajaan Pimpinan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi adalah terlalu hina dengan korupsi yang menjadi-jadi.

Sedekad yang lalu, Ezam keluar dari UMNO bersama enam kotak yang dilaung-laungkan sebagai berisi segala dokumen yang boleh menumbangkan kerajaan Barisan Nasional. Sampai hari ini saya menanti Ezam membongkar isi keenam-enam kotak itu. Ezam rela ke penjara mempertahankan enam kotaknya. Dan minggu ini, Ezam kembali ke dalam UMNO bersama enam kotaknya.

Ezam kembali ke dalam UMNO bersama enam kotak? Apakah isi kandungan kotak-kotak itu? Hari ini segala-galanya telah jelas lagi bersuluh. Sebenarnya satu ketika dahulu Ezam keluar UMNO dengan enam kotak kosong, tetapi hari ini, Ezam kembali ke dalam UMNO dengan 6 kotak berisi.

Apakah yang diisi di dalam kotak-kotak itu? Apakah enam kotak itu berisi segala bentuk dokumen yang boleh memusnahkan Anwar Ibrahim dan mereka yang setia dengannya? Apakah enam kotak itu berisi segala dokumen dan skandal yang boleh menumbangkan kesepakatan kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat? Atau enam kotak itu berisi berjuta-juta ringgit sebagai habuan kepulangannya ke dalam UMNO.

Seorang Ahli Parlimen yang juga amat rapat dengan Anwar Ibrahim memberitahu saya, Ezam menawarkan RM10 juta kepada 3 orang Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri Perak untuk mengikutnya menyertai UMNO. Jika ini berlaku, tumbanglah kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat di Perak.

Kembalinya Ezam ke pangkuan UMNO dijadikan pesta seperti dahulukala, bila ada pegawai kanan Parti Komunis Malaya menyerah diri, mereka dipaksa untuk membuat kenyataan terbuka dan menyebarkan propaganda Kerajaan. Melihat Ezam di kaca TV memberitahu bahawa beliau memohon untuk kembali ke dalam UMNO kerana kerajaan Pimpinan Abdullah adalah kerajaan yang Pro-Reform, bahkan Ezam seperti tidak tahu untuk menjelaskan keputusannya itu dan asyik-asyik berputar-putar pada kalimah ‘Pro-Reform’ mengingatkan saya disewaktu kecil dahulu menyaksikan bagaimana Musa Ahmad, bekas pemimpin kanan PKM tampil di kaca TV menceritakan mengapa dia menyerah diri.

Mengapa Ezam terjun ke dalam kapal yang hampir pasti akan tenggelam? Mengapa Ezam membiarkan dirinya sebagai tropi suasa Abdullah Badawi? Mungkin didalam darahnya ada sesudu dua darah amfibia dan menjadikan dia bersedia untuk melompat seperti katak.

Tetapi mungkin juga tindakan Ezam itu berdasarkan perancangan teliti yang memakan masa hampir setahun diperingkat perancangan. Perancangan yang diilhamkan oleh seorang ahli politik pembangkang yang amat bijaksana yang terkenal dengan pemikiran ‘out-of-the-box’.

Kembalinya Ezam ke dalam UMNO sudah tentu menambah percakaran di dalam Majlis Tertinggi UMNO dan juga di peringkat akar umbi di mana Ezam terpaksa bertapak semula. Ezam akan dilihat sebagai Pro Abdullah lantaran menambah gelodak akar umbi yang masih ingat siapa Ezam.

Kembalinya Ezam dilihat oleh akar-umbi sebagai satu permulaan kepada usaha membuka pintu kepada Anwar Ibrahim untuk kembali semula ke dalam UMNO dan seterusnya meneutralkan Najib Razak yang mungkin akan bergabung dengan Muhyiddin Yassin menentang Abdullah.

Anwar Ibrahim tidak pernah menghentam kepimpinan Abdullah bahkan beberapa kali Anwar tampil dalam wawancara akhbar mempertahankan Khairy Jamaluddin.

Namun, Najib Razak tidak pernah terlepas dari menjadi sasaran pelbagai tomahan oleh Anwar. Musuh Anwar di dalam Anwar jelas nampak ialah Najib Razak dan bukan Abdullah.

Apabila Anwar memberitahu rakyat Malaysia bahawa kerajaan baru akan ditubuhkan pada bulan September, apakah Anwar merujuk kepada kerajaan Abdullah-Anwar? Apakah pada bulan September Anwar akan menyertai UMNO dan akan dilantik sebagai ‘running-mate’ Abdullah untuk pemilihan pucuk pimpinan parti pada Disember 2008.

Di dalam politik tiada yang mustahil, di dalam UMNO, yang mustahil telah beberapa kali berlaku dan tentu kita masih ingat bagaimana ‘duri dalam daging’ UMNO, iaitu Musa Hitam bergabung dengan musuh tradisinya Tengku Razaleigh untuk menjatuhkan Mahathir atau lebih jelas, untuk membunuh Razaleigh ‘once and for all’?

Segala yang berkemungkinan berupaya menjadi kenyataan dan buat masa terdekat, jelas sekali kemasukkan Ezam ke dalam UMNO menambahkan lagi kekusutan yang UMNO hadapi.

Siapakah yang mendapat habuan dari bertambahnya kekusutan di dalam UMNO ini?